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Pientalopakettien tilauskannassa 40 prosentin pudotus

Filed Under: Construction, Honkarakenne, Tulikivi by pietrox — Leave a comment
30/01/2009

Talopakettien myynti on romahtanut, sillä niiden tilauskanta oli vuodenvaihteessa noin 40 prosenttia jäljessä vuotta aiempaa tasoa. Pientaloteollisuus PTT ry:n tuoreessa pientalobarometrissä ennakoidaan talopakettien kuluvan vuoden toimitusten painuvan 6 200 kappaleeseen, kun viime vuonna toimitettiin 8 100 talopakettia. Siten toimitukset vähenisivät tänä vuonna edelleen 23 prosenttia, vaikka jo viime vuonna tuli takapakkia 19 prosenttia edellisvuodesta. Parhaimmillaan toimitettiin 11 000 talopakettia vuonna 2006.

Myös omakotitalojen aloituksissa kehitys on ollut vastaava. Barometrin mukaan aloitukset painuivat viime vuonna 11 700 kappaleeseen edellisvuoden 14 500:sta, eli pudotusta kertyi 19 prosenttia. Omakotiasuntojen aloitusten ennakoidaan supistuvan tänä vuonna 9 500:aan, jolloin laskua tulisi 19 prosenttia lisää.
Karuilta näyttävistä luvuista huolimatta pientaloteollisuus näkee kuitenkin positiivisiakin merkkejä ja kaupankäynnin odotetaan piristyvän alkuvuodesta. Järjestön mukaan markkinat ovat tammikuussa heränneet ja talonäyttelyissä on ollut liikkeellä runsaasti tosiaikomuksilla olevia ostajia. PTT näkee monia pientalorakentamista tukevia tekijöitä. Näitä ovat muun muassa omakotirakentamisen patoutunut tarve, korkojen lasku, kuluvan vuoden ennakoitu reaaliansioiden kehitys, inflaation taittuminen sekä rakennustyövoiman saatavuuden paraneminen.

Pientaloteollisuus kuitenkin varoittaa, että omakotialoitusten ja talopakettien kuluvan vuoden ennakoitu määrä voi olla vielä selkeästi huonompi kuin edellä mainituissa ennusteissa. Tämä johtuu siitä, että talokaupan kehitys on keskeisesti riippuvainen talouden yleisistä tekijöistä

Lähde: Rakennuslehti

PTT: Pientalobarometri 1/09

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VCP to reduce pulp production during 1Q

Filed Under: Forest, Tamfelt by pietrox — Leave a comment
30/01/2009

SAO PAULO, Jan. 30, 2009 (RISI) – Brazil’s Votorantim Celulose e Papel (VCP) will take market related downtime during the first quarter of this year in order to balance pulp supply and demand. The company plans to curtail 27,000 tonnes of pulp in the period, which represents approximately eight days of production.

According to VCP, the decision to reduce production is due to lower demand foreseen for the first quarter. Pulp inventories are unbalanced as a result of weak demand during the fourth quarter of last year.

At the beginning of November 2008, VCP took a seven days market related downtime at is Jacareí mill, in São Paulo, reducing production by 28,000 tonnes. Besides VCP, many other pulp manufacturers took downtime at the end of last year and the initiative generated positive results in the market, mainly in China, where exceeding stocks have already been consumed.

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Estonian retail sales down by 9 pct in December

Filed Under: Consumer, Olvi by pietrox — Leave a comment
30/01/2009

In December 2008 compared to December of the previous year the retail sales of goods of retail trade enterprises decreased 9 pct at constant prices, Estonian Statistics announced.

In December, the retail sales of goods of retail trade enterprises were 5.2 billion kroons. Compared to December 2007, the retail sales of goods decreased in most economic activities. The decrease in the retail sales of goods was most influenced by the stores selling manufactured goods, where the retail sales of goods decreased 15% compared to the same month of the previous year. The retail sales in stores selling textiles, clothing and footwear and also the stores selling household goods and appliances, hardware and building materials decreased the most. Only stores selling pharmaceutical goods and cosmetics, the retail sales of which increased 12% during the year, could attain the growth in retail sales compared to the same month of the previous year. The growth in retail sales of pharmaceutical goods was caused by the increase of the value added tax of medicines since 2009.

The price increase of food products that slowed down during the last months of 2008 has not brought along the increase of sales volume in stores selling foodstuffs. The retail sales in stores selling food decreased 4% compared to the previous year. The consumers were still price sensitive and limited their daily expenditures.

In December compared to November, the retail sales in retail trade enterprises increased by a fifth at constant prices. This is a characteristic rise of December, when Christmas marketing is taking place.

In December the revenue from sales of retail trade enterprises was 5.9 billion kroons, out of which retail sales of goods accounted for about 90%. Compared to December 2007, the revenue from sales decreased 7% at current prices. Compared to November 2008, this indicator increased 16%.

According to the preliminary data the retail sales of retail trade enterprises were 55.6 billion kroons in 2008, compared to 2007 the retail sales decreased 4% at constant prices.

Original article

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High Dive Into the Toxic Pool

Filed Under: Finanssikriisi by pietrox — Leave a comment
30/01/2009

What if nearly half of U.S. banking assets turn out to be bad?

As the Obama administration readies a plan for the stressed financial system, it is no doubt trying to work out the potential size of the bad-asset pool.

[Bad Company]

It is no longer just subprime mortgages and exotic credit-boom securities that are considered toxic. A wide range of other assets — from certain prime mortgages to commercial real estate to plain old credit-card loans — are now experiencing soaring defaults as the economy worsens.

Indeed, Goldman Sachs Group estimates that troubled assets could exceed $5 trillion, if defined as assets that could show a loss rate close to, or above, 10%. To put that in context, $5 trillion is just over 40% of the $12.3 trillion in total assets of U.S. commercial banks. View full article »

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Option ARMs See Rising Defaults

Filed Under: Finanssikriisi by pietrox — Leave a comment
30/01/2009

Defaults on a popular form of mortgage that gave home buyers a choice of how much to pay each month are rising and could rival those on subprime loans, potentially causing more trouble for investors and banks.

Nearly $750 billion of option adjustable-rate mortgages, or option ARMs, were issued from 2004 to 2007, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry publication. Rising delinquencies are creating fresh challenges for companies such as Bank of America Corp., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. that acquired troubled option-ARM lenders.

[Bad Company]Option ARMs typically were made to borrowers with higher credit scores than those getting subprime mortgages. But many of these borrowers were stretched thin even when they were making payments, and are particularly vulnerable to a weakening economy and falling home prices. Borrowers can face payment shock when they must begin making payments of full interest and principal.

Often, these loans were taken out without full documentation of borrowers’ incomes and assets, and the reported incomes were often overstated, analysts say. Option ARMs are concentrated in areas such as California and Florida that have seen some of the biggest home-price downturns.

Option ARMs, which have been largely abandoned, give borrowers multiple payment options, including a minimum payment that often was less than the monthly interest due. Borrowers who made the minimum payment on a regular basis often saw their loan balances grow, also known as “negative amortization.” And with home prices falling, more than 55% of borrowers with option ARMs owe more than their homes are valued at, according to J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. View full article »

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Tulikiven ennakkotiedot linjassa ohjeistuksen kanssa

Filed Under: Tulikivi by pietrox — Leave a comment
30/01/2009

Tulikivi Oyj:n liikevaihdon vuonna 2008 ennakoidaan olevan noin 66 miljoonaa euroa (69,9 me vuonna 2007) ja tuloksen ennen veroja olevan noin 2 (0,2) miljoonaa euroa, arvonalennusten jälkeen. Liiketoiminnan kassavirran ennen investointeja ennakoidaan olevan yli 7 (2,5) miljoonaa euroa.

TJ: Tulos haluttiin antaa ulos, ettei synny spekulaatio/arvuuttelua, että mikä se tulos nyt sitten on (kun kysynnän on ilmoitettu laskevan reilusti). Arvonalennus on Kermansaveen liittyvää goodwilliä.

Loppuvuodesta 2008 nopeasti supistuneen kysynnän myötä yhtiön tilausvirta on ollut laskussa, eikä sen odoteta kasvavan lähikuukausina, varsinkaan kotimaasta.

Suomen kovasti pudonnut uudisrakentaminen on vaikuttanut tulisijojen myyntiin. Suomi, Balttia ja muut skandit vetää heikosti. Keski-Eurooppaan Venäjä/Ukraina-kaasukiista on vaikuttanut hieman positiivisesti.

Yhtiön hallitus on päättänyt käynnistää Tulikivi Oyj:n toimintojen kannattavuus- ja keskittämisohjelman, jotta yhtiön kannattavuus voitaisiin jatkossakin turvata. Ohjelmalla tavoitellaan noin viiden miljoonan euron vuosisäästöjä tulevina vuosina.

Varsinaisesti säästöt vaikuttavat vuonna 2010. Tänä vuonna loppuvuoden säästöt uppoavat järjestelyistä syntyneisiin kuluihin.

Tarkoituksena on keskittää toimintoja uuni- ja verhouskiviliiketoiminnassa sekä konsernin hallinnossa. Lisäksi lopetetaan heikosti kannattavia tuoteryhmiä.

Jonkin verran valmistusta tuplapaikoissa (alhaisempi kysyntä, niin keskittettäneen vain yhteen). Lisäksi osto-, varasto ja tuotekehitystoimintojen tehostamista.

Ohjelman vuoksi yhtiö on päättänyt käynnistää koko konsernin henkilöstöä koskevat YT-neuvottelut. Vähennystarve on noin 120 henkeä. Lisäksi yhtiö tulee lomauttamaan henkilöstöään kuluvan vuoden aikana.

Ohjelman toteuttamisen arvioidaan aiheuttavan noin 2 miljoonan euron kertaluontoiset kulut.

Neuvottelut päättyvät maaliskuun puolella. Kulut kirjattaneen tipotellen, joskin pääosa alkuvaiheessa.

Pörssitiedote

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Raute starts new co-determination negotiation – weak market continues

Filed Under: Raute by pietrox — Leave a comment
30/01/2009

Raute Corporation adapts its operations to the weak continuing market situation and has initiated negotiations in compliance with the Act on Co-operation with the salaried and senior salaried employees of the Finnish units. The negotiations have also been initiated with the hourly workers of the Jyväskylä unit. The negotiations concern altogether approximately 280 employees. With regard to the rest of the personnel, the earlier agreed adaptation measures are sufficient for the time being. (Stock exchange release)

Earlier negotiations were “the short” version (concluded in November) and allowed temporarily layoffs maximum of 90 days. The new negotiations are a clear indication that Raute hasn’t managed to sign new bigger projects. With the six week negotiations, the company is able to layoff workers for until further notice basis (thus it may avoid larger scale redundancies) and wait the market conditions to improve with a lower cost structure.

Kiiski: Jyväskylässä alkaa tulla täyteen 90 päivän kiintiöt, erityisesti suunnittelupuolella. Nastolassa lomautuspäiviä on vielä jäljellä.

Original release

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Autoliv Releases Financial Report for Q4 2008

Filed Under: Componenta by pietrox — Leave a comment
29/01/2009

Market Overview

During the fourth quarter 2008, global light vehicle production (LVP) is estimated by CSM and J.D. Power to have decreased by more than 20% while LVP in the Triad, where Autoliv generates close to 90% of its sales, dropped by approximately 25% compared to the same quarter 2007.

In Europe (including Eastern Europe), where Autoliv derives more than half of its revenues, LVP is estimated to have dropped by almost 30% according to preliminary figures. The important Western European market is estimated to have declined by approximately 30% and the Eastern market by close to 25%. The overall European LVP ended more than 20 percentage points weaker than expected at the beginning of the fourth quarter 2008.

In North America, which accounts for almost one quarter of consolidated revenues, LVP dropped by 26% which was 7 percentage points worse than expected at the beginning of the quarter. Light truck production decreased by 38% and car production by 10%. GM cut their production by 23%, Ford their production by 29% and Chrysler their production by 37%. The Asian and European vehicle manufacturers reduced their production in the region by 22%.

In Japan, which accounts for about one tenth of Autoliv’s consolidated sales, LVP was reduced by 18%. This
reduction affected particularly the manufacturing levels for vehicles with higher safety content, for instance, vehicles for export to markets in North America and Western Europe.

In the Rest of the World (RoW), which accounts for more than one tenth of sales, LVP was expected to be flat but declined instead by 12%. This decline affected particularly China as well as export vehicles for North America and Western Europe with higher safety content. Autoliv’s market is driven not only by vehicle production but also by the fact that vehicles are being equipped with more safety systems in response to new crash test programs and regulations. For instance, next month a more stringent crash-test rating program will be introduced by EuroNCAP. In the U.S., a similar revision of NHTSA’s crash-test rating program has been finalized and will be implemented by the fall of 2010.

Outlook

Additionally, LVP levels during the first quarter will be affected by substantial inventory reductions, and could turn out to be the low point for the year. Provided that these trends and assumptions prevail, it could be possible to report a positive operating income excluding restructuring costs later in the year, and potentially even for the full year 2009.

Full report available here.

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Russia Kamaz again halts assembly lines amid crisis

Filed Under: PKC Group, Transportation by pietrox — Leave a comment
29/01/2009

MOSCOW, Jan 29 (Reuters) – Russia’s largest truck maker Kamaz is halting its main assembly line for the third time since the onset of the economic crisis, which has effectively frozen demand for trucks, it said on Thursday.

The suspension will last from Jan. 29 until February 12. In these two weeks the company plans to clear its stockpile of unsold trucks, said Vladimir Samoilov, spokesman for Kamaz, in which Germany’s Daimler took a 10 percent stake last month. Russia’s construction firms and heavy industries, where Kamaz finds most of its customers, have been forced to scale back production and cancel projects amid the global financial crisis.

Kamaz idled its assembly lines for two weeks in November due to the crisis, and again in December for one month. The last suspension, during which the truck maker had also planned to clear its stock of trucks, ended only ten days ago on Jan. 19.

Daimler, seeking access to what it expects to become one of the largest truck markets in Europe, signed a deal to pay $250 million for the 10 percent stake on Dec. 12. The deal calls for a further $50 million to be paid in 2012 if Kamaz meets earnings and sales targets.

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Q4'08 update: Componenta sees 30% plunge in sales – Reduce intact

Filed Under: Componenta by pietrox — Leave a comment
29/01/2009

– As expected, Componenta painted a pretty grim outlook for the FY09. We keep our REDUCE recommendation and EUR 5.50 target price intact as nearly every customer sector’s demand should remain weak or deteriorate in H1’09 and there are no signs of recovery in sight.

– High interest expenses are expected to wipe out lower EBIT effectively and to push the net result in the red. Componenta guides sales to plunge 30% YoY in ’09 and PTP to be significantly lower. Our FY09 estimates for sales are EUR 494.0m (-27% YoY) and for PTP EUR -1.5m. Furthermore, Componenta’s gearing is at staggering 355%, when outstanding capital loan is calculated in interest bearing debt. We have estimated capex to be EUR 12m in ’09. Thus the company should be able to pay debt back by some EUR 20m during FY09 (FY10 gearing est. circa 330%).

– We do not expect demand for off-road and truck sectors to recover quickly. We have revised Turkey’s sales estimates down a bit. Under the difficult situation and heavy debt load, we do not see much of upside for the share in H1’09 as the company’s P/B trades at 1.0 and EPS is expected to fall below zero. Turkish Lira is not forecasted to bring additional positive surprises, since currency is unlikely to weaken much further from the current level (EUR/TRY 2.1). On the contrary, a sudden appreciation of Lira would give an undesired hit to profit margins.

– New volumes may be gained along the year. One of the potential targets is Arvika Gjuteri’s customers, since the company has drifted in a financial distress. However, the potential impact should remain under 5% of net sales in 2009.

– Please find additional information from the attached pdf-file, or directly from the eQ Research web-service: http://research.eq.fi/ViewReport.action?resLibId=24628

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